Abu Dhabi GP 2025 Predictions

For Abu Dhabi, the story in my head is simple: Oscar Piastri wins the race… but not the championship. He finishes the year with 8 wins – one more than both Max Verstappen and Lando Norris – and still falls short on points. Classic “most wins, no title” heartbreak.

Here’s how I see it playing out.

Pole Position

Pole sitter: Lando Norris

Lando hooks up the lap he’s been threatening all season. Over one lap, the McLaren is sweet around Yas Marina and this time there’s no track limits drama, no messy final sector – just a clean, committed pole lap from Lando to start the finale from the front.

Race Result

Race winner: Oscar Piastri
P2: Lando Norris
P3: George Russell

A slightly scruffy start from Lando, a tiny bit of tyre life management from Oscar, and one perfectly-timed strategy call is all it takes to flip the script a few times. Oscar clears Lando on track and then manages the race like he’s true hero.

Lando still banks a strong P2 – good enough to keep him right in the points for the championship. George Russell quietly cleans up the chaos after Max’s failed divebomb takes out Antonelli.

By the chequered flag, my universe looks like this:

• Oscar: 8 wins on the season

• Max & Lando: 7 wins each

• The title, thats Lando’s

Crazy Prediction

Crazy prediction: Max Verstappen crashes out

If you’re going bold, you might as well really go bold.

In this scenario Max doesn’t just have a bad day – he’s out of the race. Whether it’s contact in a lap-one scrum or a rare unforced error while pushing to salvage a messy weekend, the three-time champion doesn’t see the flag in Abu Dhabi. We see him race under #69 next year (or #3)

Biggest Flop

Biggest flop: McLaren Pitwall

I just have a feeling that McLaren will do something sketchy or annoying on the pitwall during the race. Something like Oscar pulling away and giving Lando priority treatment.

Written December 4th 2025 by Shane Canekeratne