F1 2025 Championship Forecast
Why the Title Run-In Now Belongs to Lando Norris
As Formula 1 enters the final three rounds of the 2025 season, the championship narrative has settled into a shape far sharper and clearer than the mathematics alone suggest. Lando Norris leads the standings with form, control, and momentum. Oscar Piastri remains in mathematical contention but visibly off balance. And Max Verstappen; though still alive on points, faces a path so narrow that it effectively requires a collapse from the McLaren camp or them cheating far beyond any of their past infractures.
This is the story of how the final phase of the 2025 season is poised to unfold in my humble view.
1. Championship Picture After Brazil
The São Paulo Grand Prix and Sprint delivered the most consequential swing of the season. Lando Norris emerged with victories in both competitive sessions, firmly reasserting himself as the championship leader.
Standings after Brazil:
Lando Norris — 390 pts
Oscar Piastri — 366 pts
Max Verstappen — 341 pts
A total of 83 points remain (Qatar Sprint + three Grands Prix + fastest laps). The math guarantees that the fight cannot end in Las Vegas; the earliest clinch point is the Qatar Sprint.
But mathematics alone do not explain the true shape of the title race. Form does. And form is where the divide is widening.
2. Lando Norris: Control, Consistency, and Championship Pace
Norris’s season, once punctuated by near-misses, has hardened into one defined by execution. His post-Mexico and post-Brazil performances show:
Dominance in São Paulo (Sprint + Grand Prix win)
Improved qualifying consistency
A McLaren package that holds its pace across stints
Clean weekends with no operational errors
Better Starts and Restarts
Perhaps the most meaningful shift is psychological. Reports this month confirmed Norris has made deliberate lifestyle and training changes; including working with a sports psychologist; to eliminate the small lapses that previously cost him points. The result has been a run of form comparable to a seasoned champion.
The key metric: he does not need to win again. Three podium-level results with modest Sprint points likely secure the title.
This makes Norris the clear favourite entering the final phase.
3. Oscar Piastri: Still Fast, But Form Has Slipped
Piastri entered the season’s middle phase looking nearly level with Norris; seven wins apiece and deep McLaren stability. That equilibrium has shifted.
Recent weekends have revealed:
Qualifying inconsistency
Difficulty placing the car in its optimal setup window
Self-admitted struggles with balance and confidence
A visible inability to match Norris sector-by-sector
Multiple crashes and resulting DNFs
None of this suggests a total collapse; only that the precision required to hunt down a 24-point deficit is momentarily out of reach. Even if Piastri were to win all remaining races, Norris retains control of the championship through consistent podiums.
Piastri remains the primary mathematical rival. But momentum no longer sits with him.
4. Max Verstappen: Mathematically Alive, Practically Marginalized
Verstappen’s late-season surge briefly reopened the title fight, but Norris’ double São Paulo victory rebuilt a barrier that Red Bull is unlikely to break.
The facts:
Verstappen is 49 points behind the leader with 83 available.
Red Bull’s 2025 upgrades improved competitiveness, but not enough to consistently beat McLaren over full race distances.
Verstappen’s championship path requires:
A Norris DNF or no-score,
Piastri dropping points, and
Near-perfect execution from Red Bull in all remaining Sprint and Grand Prix sessions.
It is theoretically possible; but operationally improbable. Verstappen will remain a threat for race wins. But for the championship, his fate now depends on circumstances outside his control.
5. The Final Three Rounds: Circuit-by-Circuit Outlook
Las Vegas Grand Prix
A low-grip, high-speed street circuit with heavy braking zones. Red Bull’s improved straight-line efficiency makes this Max’s best opportunity to regain ground. Norris, with a 24-point cushion, does not need to take unnecessary risks. Piastri must halt the narrative with a confidence surge.
Projected outcome: Verstappen contends for the win; McLaren still the more consistent package. Lando wins.
Qatar Grand Prix (Sprint Weekend)
The championship’s pivot point. Lusail’s sweeping high-load corners have historically suited McLaren’s 2025 architecture. The Sprint makes this the earliest mathematically possible clinch scenario for Norris.
Projected outcome: A controlled P2–P3 weekend is enough to place one hand fully on the trophy. Oscar could win due to his confidence surging with less to lose.
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
If the title remains open, Yas Marina will likely favour the most stable package; and McLaren has been just that. With a gap of 15+ points, Norris can simply mirror the nearest rival.
Projected outcome: Verstappen or Piastri may win the race; Norris closes the title with strategic conservatism.
6. Championship Forecast
Predicted Final Drivers' Standings
1. Lando Norris – World Champion
Earned through consistency, discipline, and command of a well-developed McLaren package.
2. Oscar Piastri
Closes the season strongly but cannot reverse the late-season form shift.
3. Max Verstappen
A threat for victories, but too far back to convert the championship without a McLaren failure.
Conclusion
With three rounds remaining, the 2025 Formula 1 World Championship has distilled into a clear hierarchy. Norris holds the strongest combination of pace, form, and statistical control. Piastri retains a mathematical path but has fallen away in execution. Verstappen needs events far beyond Red Bull’s influence.
Unless the final phase delivers extreme unpredictability, the trajectory of the 2025 season points toward one outcome: Lando Norris standing as World Champion.
Sources
Primary Results & Standings
Formula 1® Official Results & Standings (Mexico City GP, São Paulo GP, São Paulo Sprint, 2025 Drivers’ Championship Table)
Formula1.com — “Permutations: How Norris Can Win the 2025 Title”
Formula1.com — Post-race summaries and statistical breakdowns of Mexico and Brazil
Driver & Team Performance Reporting
The Race — Analysis of Norris’s late-season consistency and Piastri’s form trends
Autosport — Coverage of Red Bull’s late-season upgrades and Verstappen’s mathematical position
Motorsport.com — Driver interviews (Norris lifestyle adjustments; Piastri setup comments)
Circuit References
FIA / Formula 1 — Las Vegas, Qatar (Lusail), Abu Dhabi circuit profiles and event schedules
Written November 17th, 2025 by Shane Canekeratne